Rainfall on a par for December as planet cooks

DECEMBER rainfall in Euroa saw a somewhat usual amount of rain for that month which, at 42mm, was slightly less than the average of the previous four years. In the four years prior to that (2016-19), December had an average significantly higher, thanks to the memorable heavy rain in that month in 2017 of nearly 187mm, spiking the average for those four years to over 82mm, almost double the amount of last month. The wet start to summer came in the final month of spring with November receiving almost 99mm thanks to two stormy days that swept the area. This matched the start of the year with a very wet January (152mm) more than doubling the average for that month in the previous eight years. Globally, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) website, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) east of Australia has been neutral for the past six months. Changes in sea surface temperature have been consistent with developing La Niña over this period and with December’s figures being the warmest on record, the ENSO is more likely to develop into a La Niña event for ‘at least’ part of the remainder of summer, resulting in more rain, warmer nights, and fewer extreme heat days in regional Victoria. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) started the year neutral and the bureau’s model indicates that the IOD will remain neutral throughout the forecast period to May 2025. This is consistent with four other international climate models surveyed and is typical IOD behaviour at this time of year, indicating little change to Victoria's weather. Most of BOM's models have ENSO returning to neutral by March. With Los Angeles suffering its worst ever bushfires, resulting in at least 24 people dead, much attention has been drawn to recent climate data. Both the World Meteorological Organisation and NASA have confirmed 2024 was the warmest year on record, with the average temperature now passing the 'critical' increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Rainfall on a par for December as planet cooks

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