VICTORIAN farmers are taking a more pessimistic outlook on the year ahead, despite the state currently enjoying “generally good” seasonal conditions in most areas.
The latest quarterly Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey has found, though down on last quarter, the decline was relatively small compared to falls in rural confidence seen in other states this quarter.
However, Victorian farmers are also more positive than the rest of the nation.
The survey, released last week, found net rural confidence in the state has declined from -24 per cent last quarter to -31 per cent, with 44 per cent of Victorian farmers now expecting business conditions to worsen in the coming 12 months.
While 42 per cent expect agricultural economic conditions to stay the same, only 13 per cent of farmers anticipate an improvement.
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The chief cause for concern for those Victorian farmers expecting agricultural business conditions to decline is lower commodity prices – nominated by 75 per cent of those with a pessimistic view on the year ahead.
The prospect of deteriorating seasonal conditions was also a growing worry for those with a pessimistic outlook – cited by 21 per cent this survey.
Of those Victorian farmers expecting the agricultural economy to improve in the coming 12 months, commodity prices were instead cause for optimism – with rising commodity prices identified as a driver of positive outlook by 66 per cent.
Rabobank head of relationship management for Southern Victoria and Tasmania Daker Pern said while farmers across much of the state have enjoyed a strong start to the season, they are now very aware of the potential of drier conditions ahead, and this outlook will be weighing on their minds.
“In terms of the seasonal outlook, it’s the potential of what may happen – not what is actually happening – that has Victorian producers concerned,” Mr Pern said.
Victorian grain producers are the most optimistic of all the state’s farmers, with 73 per cent anticipating agribusiness conditions to improve or remain unchanged in the year ahead.
Mr Pern said farmers are apprehensive about how the season will “finish” in grain growing regions.
“Grain markets are reasonably steady at present and growers have had a good season to date, but they are now worried about weather forecasts and what the finish to the season might look like,” he said.
Beef and sheep producer confidence has been impacted by softening commodity prices this quarter.
Of the 40 per cent of Victorian beef producers who are now expecting the agricultural economy to worsen in the next 12 months, 76 per cent cited falling commodity prices as their major concern.
The survey found of the 61 per cent of the state’s sheep producers this quarter who are expecting the agricultural economy to worsen.
Overall this quarter, more Victorian farmers are looking to decrease investment in their farm business in the coming year – at 21 per cent (up from 16 per cent previously).
“While farmers are refocusing their investment plans, we are noting an increased interest in spending on infrastructure that will deliver labour and or energy efficiency,” Mr Pern said.
Debt is expected to increase, with 18 per cent of Victorian farmers surveyed indicating they expect their debt to rise and 21 per cent expecting to decrease debt.
The next results are scheduled for release in December.
